G10 FX

EUR
The geopolitical environment still fraught, whilst there was some interest to dip the toe back in yesterday given people must be a lot closer to home I can’t believe it is with much confidence at this point. Feels to me like we are in for a choppy period of consolidation as we all try and appraise how long this conflict might potentially last and gauge the knock on effects from how temporary or not this rise in energy prices might be.

Little to add on the positions held here, still like USDJPY and EURJPY shorts although to be fair the yen leg is of minimal help at this stage (although quite well behaved given oil and yields), reduced half my EURHUF short on the dip yesterday thankfully so will re-add towards 390 again and just observing the rest given the driver is something in which we have very little edge to know when it’s over at this point.

We continued to see euro selling from the franchise yesterday but the price action was more stable than the day before. The risk was clearly for this move lower given the rip in gas prices earlier in the week, I guess now we try and assess how much damage this may be doing to what is generally seen as a fragile growth trajectory. On that basis have reduced two thirds of the short from earlier in the week as the period of digestion begins, would still think whilst below 1.1670/1.1700 zone the currency can probe a bit lower towards the November lows (1.1470) but given before this flare up I was planning to buy the dip given the medium term dollar view it is probably less of a slam dunk from here.

GBP
As energy production shut-ins increase there remain decent upside risks to oil and gas prices which should continue to weigh on GBP (and EUR) going forward. There is not really much else that matters at this point and while we have seen decent selling of the single unit, pound flows have remained surprisingly resilient and have come mostly from the DHFs.

Technically, 1.3280/00 has been pretty stubborn so will be watching for a sustained move below to accelerate price action and cause a bit of catch up as the same type of calm is not being exhibited in gilts. Staying short GBP here and toggling between GBPUSD and GBPJPY as we are testing the cloud bottom here at 209.42, a close below which has not been achieved since we were at 191 back in May.

Still no sign of the Mandelson files, we have the DMP later at 9.30 GMT. 200d now up at 0.8679 in the cross while 0.8750 remains resistance, cable resistance remains 1.3400/20 while through 1.3280, 1.3160/70 is next support.
Sales & Trading

G10 FX Daily Report — 5th March 2026
05 March 2026

J P M O R G A N

JPY
Not really much to update on from the Japanese side of things – not that it is the main focus at the moment. Some ‘people’ have been talking about the BoJ again apparently an April hike is not ruled out – not really news while trade union UA Zensen is reportedly pushing for - a higher than last year - 6.46% wage increase.

The JPY’s support amidst the spike in energy and yields remains encouraging for our view here and we think this dynamic will continue and precipitate a much lower cross-JPY complex, EURJPY finally closed below the cloud bottom (183.33) for the first time in a year (when we were 160) while GBPJPY teeters on its respective level (209.42), the former is also challenging a big uptrend (from 155) around 182.00 and the 100d at 181.86 (been above since 160). So all in all cross-JPY could start to look pretty terrifying on a technical basis – unless of course you are short! IJC later before NFP tomorrow.

CHF
EURCHF up towards 0.91 yesterday as we saw interest to get back into risk, but also SNB Vice Chairman Martin re-iterate their willingness to intervene. We are inching back lower however as I think the market is realising this could be a longer war than expected, and that it will hurt growth prospects and risk sentiment.

We saw decent franc demand from all sectors yesterday including, interestingly, systematics who already sit fairly long CHF. Whilst I don’t disagree it is a good safe haven, I still struggle to buy CHF down here given the SNB’s recent comments, and instead would rather be long dollars against the likes of Euro and GBP.

AUD / NZD
The sizeable selling of AUD longs, primarily from the HF community over recent days, took a breather yesterday suggesting that positioning may have reached a more neutral level, although AUDNZD is lower this morning after China set its lowest growth target for 3 decades and domestic Household Spending data printed lower than forecast.

But if we believe that AUD will find support from higher commodity prices and with the RBA remaining vigilant on inflationary pressures, the AUD on crosses still makes sense, especially AUD/NZD. Uncertainty remains and the impact of the Middle East conflict on growth and inflation is uncertain, but the short-term dynamic should see AUD continue to outperform. As I have written here before, a protracted war will weigh on high beta and on risk off days AUD will not be immune, as was evidenced on Tuesday, so we must be flexible, but I still like AUD to outperform on crosses in the short term, although full disclosure, I am less invested than I have been.

A move through 1.1840/60 trendline support would call for a short-term reassessment on part of my AUD/NZD longs.

CAD
Plenty of noise surrounding the conflict in the Middle East, a prime example being an NYT article suggesting Iranians were looking to negotiate which was later refuted, while another this morning that “IRAN READY TO ABANDON NUCLEAR PROGRAM IF U.S. OFFERS A SATISFACTORY ALTERNATIVE”. Not really certain what constitutes a “satisfactory alternative”, but what is clear is that there are large disruptions facing the energy markets and a resolution to the conflict won’t be quick.

CAD remains supported given its beta to oil, and while we’ve been long USDCAD for a while now given tepid domestic growth, our conviction has been dampened by disappointing price action. Flow-wise, RM were sellers of the Loonie yesterday.
Sales & Trading

05 March 2026

J P M O R G A N

SEK / NOK
NOKSEK liquidation was the order of the day yesterday, with cross falling 1% from the highs. The franchise unsurprisingly saw HF supply, but also RM (-3.2 Z Score). The move in the cross below 0.9500/10 saw stop losses kick in and although the 0.5% bounce off the lows is encouraging, I cannot rule out further deleveraging.

Once the dust settles and we are likely some ways away from that, then the well subscribed view of long NOKSEK should continue to find support, but with price action bordering on untradable at times (see the NYT article on Iran reaching out, which was subsequently denied) I have scaled back even further.

Taking a step back, the long NOKSEK view remains and was reinforced by another soft Swedish inflation print this morning, but macro views are an afterthought for market participants at this point as all the focus is on the Middle East conflict, with 1 headline or line of action away from another illiquid kneejerk move. These moves have caused us all a lot of pain, but I would note that despite the deleveraging, EURNOK is unchanged from Friday, while slightly higher on various crosses, which is encouraging, but we are certainly not at a point where I feel I should be increasing exposure.